Adrian's Friday Reflections

A collection of Adrian Johnson’s thoughts and experiences as an adviser, inspired by my clients, colleagues, family and friends.

It’s a podcast – everyone is doing them – it can’t be that hard!

As someone who has been a big fan of podcasts for years, and avidly listens to a variety each week, it was easy to develop a familiarity with the medium that lulled me into a false sense of “anyone could do that”!!

So with that back drop I have decided to launch a new podcast.

To be fair, I did have some experience to draw on. My business partner Adam Walkom launched the Permanent Wealth Podcast when we first started the business. I have been a guest a few times to talk about various economics / markets / financial planning related stuff. The guest experience can be quite fun, particularly when you are “chewing the fat” with a mate. I’m not sure that always makes the best content, but there are plenty of big names that have proven that concept. Note, there is nothing “Big Name” about me!

I have also hosted a podcast, twice. Once interviewing Adam about his new book (Plan For Happy) and one with Caspar Harvard-Walls a friend, really knowledgeable real estate guy, and a great storyteller. As they say where I am from “No worries!”

Can anyone see the holes in my logic here… the Swiss cheese looking holes??

So I am pressing ahead with my great idea. I have recorded four episodes already with awesome guests (more on them to follow), but the effort, stress and umpteenth tech issues means it is clearly not an undertaking for the faint-hearted. There may well be a number of young guns reading this (maybe?) thinking “what is this bloke on about – it is easy” and to them it is. For me, well, not yet anyway.

Two hour interview with screeching feedback in your ears?

Twenty minutes trying four different headsets trying to get anything to sync with my PC, my Bluetooth or hardwired whilst a guest (who’s charge out rate probably has a comma in it) waits patiently?

Using special purpose software that works when you don’t have a guest… but as soon as the guest logs in the gremlins appear…

I’m hoping that is all part of the “learning curve” and have set a huge task for those helping me with the editing of all this. I must say that having a great team to help you is essential. Big shout out to Frank Page, Fiona Lynch and Jane Johnson.

So what is going to be the output from all this hoopla?

Great conversations with some very interesting people in the legal profession.

Those awesome guests that I mentioned before?

Charles Anderson
Heledd Wyn
James Badcock
Lewis Grimm

Keep a look out for the Trailer on Tuesday!

Listen to Talk To My Lawyer here!

How deep does tribalism run? Does it help or hinder our decision making?

A friend of mine is a season ticket holder at a London football club and recently, kindly, invited me to watch them play my (non-London) club. It was a good match with goals scored and a raucous crowd providing a great atmosphere and plenty of laughs – if you can catch the song lyrics and are not worried by swearing. I was clearly an interloper in the home fans section, so I did not wear any colours or clothes that would give that away and was comfortable that outlandish celebration of an away goal would not be excepted. Good right?

For the most part, yes. In the mad rush and crush to get into the ground before kick off we somehow ended up in the wrong row. One lovely gentleman kindly mentioned at the top of his voice “you better not be one of those f_ _ _ c_ _ _ who support that other team, you will get f_ _ _ smashed here if you are, you c_ _ _”. Given I had not opened my mouth and certainly not spoken to the kind man I found this somewhat presumptuous. There is a distinctive accent associated with local fans of my team, which I don’t have given that I grew up in Australia before moving to London. I was not sure politely replying that I was not from that part of the country would have won the day, so we quickly moved to find our actual seats. All good.

Tribalism in sport is nothing new to me. I am a huge (some have said fanatical) fan of Australian Rules Football. My own father once refused to sit with me at the Grand Final, in a crowd of 100,000 at the MCG, lest I embarrass him with my antics. I was 20 at the time, and I have mellowed quite a bit, but the tribalism still remains.

Does this play over into our everyday lives? Does it effect our decision making in areas other than what Saturday entertainment to seek out?

Today a friend of mine, James Campbell, posted an invitation to a interesting networking event … to be held at Stanford Bridge … I found myself wondering if people would be more likely (Chelsea supporters almost certainly), or less likely (fans of other teams) to attend. Why didn’t I immediately say “Yes”? I have been to that ground a few times, there is no football match on, why did I hesitate?

Does this impact decisions we make about investing? It might. My former colleague and friend Justin Newdigate is a master investing psychologist and probably has the answer. As an everyday person how do I avoid this “tribal bias” so that I make the best decisions for my finances. What about other biases?

One of the best ways to address these issues is to have a trusted adviser to talk you through the pro’s and con’s, to lay out the facts objectively and to make independent recommendations for you to consider.

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What constitutes a mid-life crisis?

Is it always a crisis?

Does it have to be bad at all?

Are you allowed only one?

I’m sure younger folks would talk about a Pivot instead.

I have identified three possibilities in my own 53 years and counting that could conceivably be given that label, and I openly joke about the second and third.

Before I get into those, what is mid-life these days? “Three score and ten” is an old adage from the days when living to 70 was seen as a solid achievement. These days we are constantly told that people are living longer, with ample logical explanation and anecdotal evidence. When we build financial plans for clients I always set mortality at 100.

Using the most pessimistic mortality forecast for myself, I went through my first potential mid-life crisis in 1999 at the age of 30. I upped sticks from Melbourne and moved to London on a 1 year visa to stay with a friend from University. I had no job, no real plan and really just liked the idea of seeing the world a bit. One could easily retort with high conviction that is what everyone does and was nothing more than a belated gap year. The case for the defence is that I am still here!

So maybe that doesn’t constitute a mid-life crisis and I surely was too young.

At 40 I “upped the anti”. I quit my successful and stressful job of 10 years, went back to (business) school and got married… for the first (and only) time to the incredible Jane Johnson. Surely the timing is better for that one, the actions conceivably riskier, but whilst it felt very big at the time, it is pretty hard to argue it was a crisis. I was ready to change jobs and move forward in my career. I really had an awesome time at business school, and Jane and I are married, living in South West London and have a fantastic young son. Whilst I do regularly refer to this as my “first mid-life crisis” it is probably more accurately labelled a “time of big change and maturity”. At least living to 80 was on the cards!

My final candidate, as I wrote this, is not feeling that strong either. At 50, during COVID, I changed career, sat 6 professional exams and joined my business partner Adam Walkom in founding Permanent Wealth Partners LTD.

After all that analysis I don’t really know what constitutes a mid-life crisis. There has been no red, rag-top sports car nor Harley Davidson for me (so far anyway…). When I turned 50 I told myself it was the half way mark. They say that you should be prepared to take the same advice that you deliver to clients, so my cash flow forecast (yes, I have one) has mortality = 100 too.

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Is 97 a good innings?

My grandfather passed away on Christmas Day 2023. I am glad that I called him in Australia and effectively said goodbye. His health had been sliding for years and I was not shocked when I saw that he was within hours of passing on. It is strange to reflect on – should I have been more sad? Should I have grieving to do? That is complex not least because the individual himself was complex. I guess we all are and that tends to increase with age.

A boy growing up poor, one of nine children, in rural Victoria then latterly rural Tasmania ninety-seven years ago lived a starkly different life to that of my son, currently nine, growing up in London. No Nintendo Switch back then. No regular visits to the Natural History Museum. No Pokémon cards. No television.

My grandfather worked all sorts of jobs as a young man, beginning in the shady world of SP bookmaking as a “runner” for his older brother, before being a travelling tailor and Kodak salesman, then joining the Airforce during WW2. He learned accounting (his only real formal training of any sort) and somehow managed to get a job as an auditor of the various Airforce bases around the country. He always managed to time his work so that he was in a sunny climate apparently.

I won’t recount his whole life story because the point is that I never ever saw him sad. He was always an optimist and “life is what you make of it” type of person. He told many tales, some of them loose on verifiable facts, but always to make you laugh. He had a great love for his own mother, whom I met, but fractious relationships with his siblings. “Laila would die tomorrow if I paid for her funeral” was one of his colourful outbursts about his frugal sister.

I guess it is hard to be sad about someone who squeezed every bit of life out of his 97 years.

When I work with my clients we need to have difficult conversations from time to time. Some clients are far less fortunate than others and a good listener is who they need by their side. No matter what the circumstances, no matter what the financial plan looks like, there is always cause for optimism and happiness because life really is what you make of it.

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Tolerance for Risk

A fellow Australian and acquaintance of mine, Lewis Grimm, is a senior lawyer in London. Lewis writes fantastic LinkedIn posts and covers vast subject matter from philosophy, history, popular music and others, always in a warm hearted and often amusing way. He posted some thoughts about risk today which you can read here.

In working with clients in personal and family finances and financial planning, risk is a key area of discussion, learning and understanding. I always ask new clients: “What does risk mean to you?” and never get the same answer. There is a bias to financial types of risks in the answers that I hear, but that is almost certainly due to the persona they are speaking to, their new financial adviser.

So what is risk? I have a generic definition that includes four factors: Probability (High vs Low), Outcome (Good vs Bad), Impact (Large vs Small) & Timing (Now or in the Future). Any and all risks include an aspect of all four.

Let’s use three examples:

1. Injury from being hit by a bus crossing the road. Low probability; Bad outcome; Large impact; Current timing.

2. Losing a small amount of money betting on red at the roulette table. High probability; Bad outcome; Small impact; Current timing.

3. My nine year old daughter becomes a movie star in twenty years time. Low probability; Good outcome; Large impact; Future timing.

There are plenty of investment related examples too. The key, the secret, is to identify and understand the correct risks.

The next logical question is: What to do about risk? I have a three factor answer: Mitigate, Insure, Embrace.

That is it. You can only ever do one or a combination of those three things.
The interesting point that Lewis Grimm discusses is the idea of whether doing nothing is taking action. I will slightly reframe this idea. You are either making a conscious decision about a risk, or not. Doing nothing could be either. Regardless, the factor you are employing is effectively Embracing Risk, even if not consciously.

Wow!

Do you know all of the risks facing you and your family’s finances and lives? Have you made conscious decisions about all of them so that you have a sense of assurance?

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What is it about the grandparent / grandchild relationship that is so special?

My son is lucky to have a grandparent in the UK and grandparents in Australia. Those overseas get FaceTime calls and Christmas cards but only see him once or rarely twice a year. But it is always a special time for them all.

I have very fond memories of the weekly family dinner, my sister and I playing cards with Pa Wally & Nana Jean after the meal. We graduated from 500 to Solo to Bridge over the course of many years, every Tuesday night. We learned many things, often subtle and unintentional but important. Humility, caring for other people, and listening to wiser minds to name a few.

When we work with clients, particularly those with new grandchildren, after a lot of initial effort to get finances in order, we always turn to questions like: “How would you like to be involved with your grandchildren?” and “Are there places or experiences that you want to share with them?”.

These open the discussion to all manner of ideas, often way beyond leaving money, that have clients excited and usually smiling broadly as they relate an anecdote or two. The cheeky grandchild seems to be a fixture of modern families!

My son’s grandparents arrived at our house this morning, visiting from Australia. Their nine year old chaperone is taking them around town whilst I reflect on my wonderful times with my grandparents.

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A digital detox in a Yurt...

With so many bank holidays in May this year there always a chance of us doing something a bit whacky.

When my wife suggested that we spend three nights in a Yurt in West Sussex I was not initially too impressed. A yurt is a large tent. Camping then.

To be fair the tent was very well done as it turned out, and the facilities that had been built alongside – outdoor kitchen, outdoor dining and undercover seating all made for very comfortable accommodations.

The second curve ball I was thrown was the suggestion of a digital detox for the three days. So I turned off my phone on Sunday at midday and did not turn it back on again until Wednesday midday. I not only survived, but managed to read a whole book and spend plenty of time playing with my son and our dog.

We had a great three days, the weather played its part too.
Back to reality I am pressed to get through my work for the week, but rested and focused it is all going okay.

Rested and focused we can all achieve great stuff.

Maybe even turn off the digital stuff for a day or two!

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‘I’m stressed out man’

“I’m stressed out man” is a quote that I cannot quite attribute, but it likely came to me from one of the many 80’s movies I consumed whilst working my weekend video store job during university.

Stress is a serious indicator of poor health outcomes, both mental and physical. I thought I was having a particularly stressful week as I tried to “clear the decks” before going on Easter vacation, until a prospective client called seeking someone to help him.

I can’t go into specific details, but suffice to say this gentleman has four big decisions about to hit him one after the other:

1. His mortgage is about to roll off a very low rate on to something unseen in a long time, about six times what he is paying now – what does he do?
2. His employer is asking him to re-apply for his job and he has to weigh up Contracting vs PAYE – which makes the most sense?
3. His partner has been through a severe mental health episode and they have to decide whether to commence legal proceedings – is it worth it?
4. He is being pressure by a salesman to invest his ISA allowance into an investment scheme before Saturday – should he just do it?

Stress is real, but it is also relative. That this man reached out for help in the face of all this, and more, is so courageous. We will help him, regardless of whether he ever becomes a client.

When I said to him that I felt he needed some time to step back from all this and maybe attack each in turn, he agreed, and we started on number 4 right then.

Do not allow yourself to be pressured into an investment decision, ever. Many people have been rushing to “get their ISAs done” this week (me too!), but that is not really an investment decision. It is a “taking advantage of a tax wrapper” decision and certainly not life and death.

If you are feeling stressed – please get help. If your finances are stressing you, please reach out to an independent financial adviser.

Maybe even turn off the digital stuff for a day or two!

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